Mass Market or Niche Specific - What a Tablet Needs to Succeed

I�ve said it before and I�ll say it again � 2011 is going to be an interesting year. No one really knows where the tablet market is likely to take us and as a result, a lot of people are trying to guess. Just the other day, NDP Group threw out one of the biggest numbers I�ve seen yet � an estimate of more than 242 million tablets by 2015. Do I think it�s possible? Absolutely. Do we know for sure that it will happen? Not quite. And yet, part of the fun right now is trying to determine exactly where this tsunami of new technology will take us.

Will Apple dominate for years to come as they did in the portable music player niche? Or will then become one of many high profile players in the market as they did with their iPhone? Will Motorola make a strong debut at the end of the month despite a $799 price point on the Xoom? Or will then struggle to get a foothold against a less expensive, more ubiquitous device in the Apple iPad?

Right now, a lot of analysts are worried about pinpointing who can compete directly with the iPad. Maybe there isn�t a direct iPad competitor, but do we really need one anyways? The iPad fulfils a niche need. Despite its incredible sales numbers in 2010, the device cannot replace a desktop or laptop computer for heavy users. In fact, like many Apple products, the iPad is designed to provide the creature comforts of computing in a sleek, well-constructed frame. It is attractive, it is easy, and it has a LOT of Apps and media.

Other devices do not yet have these features, but that may be okay because in a market that is currently hurdling toward the future, the next big question should probably be �who can deliver the best device in each niche?� not who can provide another mass market device.  

Companies thrive and customers win when the focus is taken away from trying to please the most possible customers instead of playing to strengths and developing a device that does specific things very well. And while devices like the Xoom and TouchPad look incredibly attractive, their success hinges largely on the ability of retailers and the manufacturer to market toward a tech-savvy niche of users who want more power in their devices.

How to Establish a Niche in a Growing Market

I don�t think no one stands a chance as a mass market manufacturer. There will surely be at least two or three very strong devices in the next two years that rise to the top of the field for Android and Windows tablet computing. But, as the tablet market moves forward, I think we will also see a strong shift in focus toward creating niche devices that serve more specific needs.

Even Apple has done this in the past with their Mac OS as Windows took and held a huge lead in the home operating system market. If you cannot be the biggest fish in your pond, find a smaller pond. Apple did that with schools and creative professionals.

And right now, I�m as excited to see what manufacturers do with medical devices and enterprise integration on tablets as I am to see what the next mass market entertainment-focused tablet can pull off. Convertible tablets, 3D based tablets and many more are drumming up interest right now and it�s a good thing. The more companies are willing to seek a specific niche in which they can excel, the more varied and advanced tablet technology is likely to get.

But for now, we are likely to see things shake out a bit between companies like Motorola, HP, LG, and Asus. Apple may have taken the crown in 2010 for mass market device of choice, but there are a lot of alternatives in 2011 hoping to give them a run for their money. 

The Year of the Tablet Consumer

Since CES I�ve felt like we�re building to something � a showdown of sorts slated for this spring. With dozens of new devices coming out in the next few weeks and even a handful of new operating systems set to land, the tablet market is about to change in ways we�ve never seen before. So, what does it mean for consumers? Let�s take a closer look at the state of the tablet market.

Sales and New Products

In 2010, there were 17 million tablet sales, most of which were Apple iPads. In 2011 that number is expected to climb north of 40 million and include a lot more Android and Windows devices. How much more of the share will be for other manufacturers remains to be seen, but one thing we can be sure about is that the ecosystem model developed by Apple isn�t going anywhere.

People want a device that provides a complete system. They want App stores and operating systems they come to know and trust throughout the day. They want a device that is operational but also a part of their identity � and while PCs and phones have done this, tablets stand to be even more of a cultural touchstone because of their mobility and the fact that they will be shared and used frequently in the presence of others.

Developments Coming Soon

As of two days ago, the signs still point to a release of the Motorola Xoom tablet on February 24^th. The Best Buy ad leaking the launch date also pegs the price point at $799 and shows a variety of data plans for those wanting high speed access.

When the Xoom launches it will signal the opening salvo in a yearlong back and forth between Apple and everyone else. While Apple clearly dominated in 2010 it was mostly because they blindsided the market. Other developers were not ready for the raw demand for tablets while Apple played the cards and guessed right. They subsequently cleaned up because of it.

In 2011, things won�t be so simple. New devices will likely come out with better technical specs and stronger performance numbers than the iPad, even after the iPad 2 launches. Apple will surely upgrade their device in April with a dual core processor, much more powerful screen and at least one camera, but will it be 4G? Will it support SD slots? Will it have HDMI out? These and a dozen other questions will fill the articles of tech writers everywhere and will likely impact how consumers respond to the flood of new devices.

And then there are the other guys. We cannot forget about RIM and their Playbook release set for some time in spring or summer. MeeGo may see its first major release in 2011 as the open source OS continues to gain steam. HP continues to promise a slew of new options in WebOS for tablets and Windows 7, despite a lack of new innovations at CES will continue to appear on new devices, including a number of convertible tablet/netbooks.

If 2010 was the year of the tablet, 2011 is the year of the consumer � users will have more options and greater opportunities to make choices that reflect their needs and desires in a device. Now, we just need to sit back and wait to see what the consumers decide. 

Five Things You Need to Ask Before You Choose a Tablet Operating System

It looks like we are only a couple weeks away from the first Honeycomb tablet hitting store shelves. To commemorate the moment and the soon to be rampant iOS vs. Honeycomb conversations, I want to talk about what an operating system should do for its user.

This post is not designed to single out any one operating system and declare it the �best�, though I�m sure we each have our opinions on that matter. Rather, I want to talk about what a good tablet PC should do for its user. We all use technology in different ways so we all have different expectations for what it will do.

1.       Is it Truly Mobile?

One of the primary reasons tablets are so attractive is that they provide an untethered alternative to a desktop computer (and are markedly lighter than notebooks). But, in the age of streamlining and cloud connectivity, is your device really 100% mobile? Remember that tablet computers do not have optical drives and their storage space is usually limited to less than 64 GB (usually around 16-32) with some offering SD expansion slots. If you are required to plugin to software on a desktop or constantly delete and replace files, mobility suffers. In this category, iOS suffers due to its reliance on iTunes while Android works wonderfully due to its support for over-the-air updates and SD backups.

2.       Will I Use it for Work?

Technology makes work easier, so many of us want to use our tablets to reply to emails, check spreadsheets and finish a few last minute edits. Some systems are better suited than others. A Windows tablet has access to Microsoft Office while Android has a burgeoning security environment starting to develop. A lot of enterprise users are waiting for the Playbook to arrive as well, to see what it will offer.

3.       Will I Switch in the Future?

If you plan on changing devices in the future, iOS is out of the question. After spending hundreds of dollars on iOS Apps, it will be hard to make yourself replace them all on an Android or Windows device. Android is likely the most versatile device in this regard. MeeGo, while not yet available in most markets, will likely provide similar flexibility.

4.       Apps or Hardware?

Are you a fiend for the highest end hardware or do you want the largest selection of Apps? By far, iOS wins the App arms race, though Android is close behind and the number of tablet specific apps is only growing. Windows suffers in software, but the devices tend to be decently powerful and provide a good number of enterprise features.

5.       How Often Will I Use It?

Finally, how often do you plan on using your device? If you just want a device to entertain you on an airplane or train, Apple�s iPad is a great choice because of the sheer volume of movies, TV shows and apps. However, if you plan on using your tablet as a complete replacement for your notebook or desktop, you�ll want something more powerful and capable of being fully untethered all the time.

Choosing a tablet device is getting harder with each passing month as new options hit the market. So, be sure to spend enough time getting to know your options. It�s likely the OS you choose now will be with you for some time to come. 

Honeycomb Gets Close and New Devices Start Teasing

There is a lot of news to talk about this week, though on many sites you must sort through page after page of notes on the Verizon iPhone. For those not in the United States, the battle between iPhone users and AT&T isn�t that big of a deal, though it is interesting from the standpoint of market share since, as the largest consumer base for smartphones in the world, when something changes in the US it has resounding effects around the world.

That said, I�m intrigued by the slew of recent release dates, rumours and new content additions that have appeared on the radar of late. To start with, no one can quite figure out when the new wave of tablets will arrive this spring. An errant Best Buy Facebook Page accidentally said that the Xoom would be available on February 24 in the US. While this hasn�t been confirmed or denied, it seems more and more likely considering how long Motorola�s been sitting on this device.

Of course, since Honeycomb officially debuted three days ago, the floodgates are starting to slide further open as more people prepare to launch their first Android 3.0 devices. Our first official look at the OS was nice � the same slick interface we�ve come to know and love from Android but optimized for a bigger screen.

At the same time, news is swirling around the perceived announcement of an iPad 2. No one really knows when Apple will officially announce it, but Darrell Etherington at GigaOm doesn�t think it will be in the next week (at the 4.3 unveiling), if only because it�s too far from the likely launch date and Apple needs to be more careful with their announcements now that they have real competitors. To me, if the Xoom really does hit soon, I see Apple laying out their plans shortly afterwards to cut off the likely sales of Motorola�s new device, but it remains to be seen if that will happen. The price point for the Xoom will have an impact as well.

In other news, The Daily was officially announced this week and along with it a handful of competitors like New York Times� News.me. I�m interested to see if this surge to provide an iPad newspaper will cross over to other tablets. It�s obvious that the news media and print industry are playing catch up right now, but at some point, they have to start to thinking ahead � whether for new devices or their admittedly weak subscription plans.

I suppose the message from this week is that we�re in a bit of a limbo phase. While there are some new devices hitting the market (the Dell Streak 7 arrived with a slightly disappointing screen and the first Asus Eee tablet with Windows is finally available), the big boys are still on hold � soon enough though we�ll get our hands on the Playbook, Xoom and iPad 2 and can start really arguing over which is best for 2011. 

Getting Behind the Tablet Sales Numbers

One thing that a lot of tablet PC prognosticators like to do is gauge and measure the market, either while a device is available or weeks to months ahead of its launch. So, when we do get data, inevitably it will be thrown around a dozen different ways before we understand what it really means.

Sometimes, numbers are simple. Estimates of more than 13 million iPads beings old seem realistic considering the demand for the device and the capacity at most retailers. However, the numbers for the Samsung Galaxy Tab, which reported to have sold 2 million units, are not quite the same. Usually, statements like this mean �2 million shipped to retailers� not actually sold to end users. We don�t know how many that means, but company statements have already tempered it quite a bit.  

Measuring the Future

What does that mean for companies that have a new device coming out in 2011? What does it take to create a mainstream device and how does the public generally respond to certain features? No one knows. In fact, right now, the only devices on the market to draw data from are the mega-selling iPad and a dozen or so smaller devices with varying reviews and sales numbers � none of them with outstanding selling points.

I think that niche devices like the Playbook will actually sell decently well to their respective markets, though whether they can be mega-sellers in the mass market remains to be seen. I also think that there will probably be at least one other breakout device in 2011 � most likely the Xoom, though LG�s new tablet is starting to look very attractive with the announcement of multi-carrier 4G support and 3D playback.

We have no idea what will drive end-user interest. Reviews, technical specs, and usefulness have never really been the determining factors in what sells in the technology industry. Apple�s products are never the most powerful or the most feature-rich � they are often the �coolest� and that works for them. So, to be successful, does a company need to �out-cool� Apple or can they simply find their way into the niche through a variety of highly useful, mass-market features?

It remains to be seen. But, I have a feeling in 2011 we�ll be doing a lot of number parsing as sales numbers like that of the Galaxy Tab start to pour in. 

Possible Component Issues in 2011?

This year is shaping up to be a banner year for tablet makers with estimates pegged between 30 and 60 million devices being shipped this year. That�s a lot of tablets � almost 15% of the total PC market right now and growing rapidly, but as we all know, these devices don�t necessarily use the same components as a lot of traditional devices. Along with bloggers and pundits weighing in, many market analysts have added their opinion to the fray � some even downgrading shipment expectations due to potential shortages.

We already saw shortages to some degree in 2010 with some areas not getting iPad access nearly as quickly or in as great a number as the demand might signal. Other gadgets contributed to this shortage as Asian supplies of the components in LED backlights were stretched to the limit. So, it�s no surprise to anyone involved with the market that there may be a squeeze in 2011 as dozens of new manufacturers enter the market and attempt to shore up components.

Apple probably won�t hurt. This is a company notorious for measuring and quickly responding to demand for their products. Even when shortages have hit the Cupertino based tech giant, they have responded quickly. What really remains to be seen is how the other companies can respond to the heightened demand. Many companies need to buy components and that means getting orders in early without taking on too much financial burden before a product goes to market.

What this probably means is that most of the companies out there with big names and sure demand like Samsung with their Galaxy Tab and Motorola with their forthcoming Xoom will be fine. However, smaller companies who want to get into the market without over investing will likely produce a limited amount of initial stock. That could mean that if a device breaks through and becomes extremely popular that it will be faced with inevitable supply problems.

It will be interesting to see what all of these means for an industry that is already in upheaval mode right now. Will we see new players who were smart about their component orders and big companies fail because they didn�t think ahead? Or will everyone simply have trouble finding their next device this year? 

Five Things a New Tablet OS Needs to Succeed

In 2010, we saw the arrival of the first new tablet OS since Windows 7 was launched in the form of iOS. Android showed up on some tablets as well, though the first tablet-specific Android iteration is still a few months away. That means 2011 is shaping up to be a year of showdowns and epic feature comparisons between all the new tablet operating systems set to hit the market, including Honeycomb, RIM�s QNX OS, WebOS, and MeeGo � all slated to make their tablet debuts in the next 6 months. Along with a probably upgrade to the iOS in 5.0, what does each of these operating systems need to do to succeed in a suddenly very crowded market?

Security Options

Right now, the consumer market is booming. Children, college students, and 9-5ers are all clamouring for a new tablet to carry with them. But, the biggest market not yet invested in tablet computing is the enterprise field and that�s because of the lack of security on those devices. Android and iOS devices simply don�t have the necessary interface or tools needed to support a corporate system like RIM does. Whether the Playbook is the solution or not remains to be seen, but the tablet that pulls off a secure corporate environment first that is easy for IT departments to maintain will have a huge jumpstart.

Low Learning Curve

Of course, along with security, IT departments look for devices that are easy to pick up and use. We are still in a transitional generation � with many people in the workforce who did not grow up using computers. So, it is important that any new tablet OS be agile and easy to use. I don�t think we need to see an iPad clone, but we also need something more intuitive than the standard touch interface on Windows 7.

  

Unique Target User Base

I don�t know how many mass market devices can be supported in the tablet field. No one does. In personal computing, despite thousands of competitors, only two came out on top � Windows and Mac. Will we see the same very one sided race with tablets between iOS and Android? Or will the new OS options hitting the market target unique niches in which they can thrive � such as enterprise, creatives, or the youth set?

Strong First Party Interface

In 2010, the story behind Android and iOS often boiled down to who had more apps. But, in 2011 I think apps will start to take a back seat to the first party interface tools that come in the operating system. How does the manufacturer design the user experience and how effective are the free, built-in tools that make up the OS. We already know that no one can catch up to iOS or Android in terms of raw apps, and many companies have publically admitted they won�t try, so first party interface is vital to success.

Powerful Hardware

Finally, the hardware. The fanciest, most attractive operating system in the world won�t mean a thing if the hardware running it fails. Toshiba launched a DOA tablet in 2010 that ran a perfectly effective copy of Android, but the device itself was riddled with issues, including poor implementation of some hardware based features in Android. Whether Playbook�s OS or the new Honeycomb edition of Android are good or not will matter a lot less if the devices on which they are being run cannot hold up to scrutiny.

You�ll notice I didn�t discuss Apps as a major feature. Like I said, no one will catch up to iOS and Android. With nearly half a million apps in the App Store and nearly 200,000 in the App Marketplace, it�s too big of a lead. However, that doesn�t mean a new or revamped operating system cannot come out and wow us with strong first party tools, a dedicated niche, and a powerful support system that will drive sales.